7 of essentially the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We have been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s absolutely self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely greater and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of scary Optimus robots that may in the future play board video games along with your youngsters and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with rather a lot to say, Elon’s supply was low vitality, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some really outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted underneath an hour. Listed below are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims in the course of the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the greatest product ever of any type

I feel the wheel may need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with one of the crucial ludicrous claims of all. This one is so massive that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, said the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I feel this would be the greatest product ever, of any type.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some severe contenders already for essentially the most vital product ever of any type. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel certainly needs to be in with a shout, proper? In accordance with Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out wanting prefer it’s about to fall over, can be greater than the wheel, a product that has been used for 1000’s of years. Certain it can, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually need a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” In truth, some could even need two. That is though the Optimus robotic is prone to value $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am positive for those who requested somebody at the moment dwelling in a battle zone or affected by famine what they might most prefer to spend $30,000 on, the reply would undoubtedly be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple option to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can let you know proper now I do not need one. There isn’t any method that I need to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the various hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there isn’t any method that no less than one among these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch hearth, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion individuals will need one cannot be true; will probably be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% likelihood that digital tremendous intelligence will not be dangerous

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, nevertheless it’s one which Elon has made earlier than. In accordance with him, there’s an 80% probability digital tremendous intelligence can be a drive for good. Sadly, the flip facet of because of this there is a one in 5 probability that AI will develop into self-aware and launch nukes towards us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He could have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is nearly definitely extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five probability of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the chances.

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4 Anybody will have the ability to have any services they need

Who’s paying for the ability, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people for the time being saying that know-how will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely not too long ago, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog publish that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives will be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing an analogous view of the longer term; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it can usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will have the ability to have any services they need; will probably be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work at no cost, services nonetheless require uncooked supplies and vitality, each of which value cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing facility in China will imply you can purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is attention-grabbing that every one the those who appear to be saying that tech will deliver a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Perhaps it can grow to be true — for them, no less than.

5 Your autonomous automobile can be used ten occasions extra typically than your present automobile

The concept is nice, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is slightly contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nonetheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the common particular person makes use of their automobile for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in every week. If a automobile can drive itself, then it may very well be used as a lot as ten occasions greater than automobiles are at the moment, making your automobile ten occasions extra useful.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automobile can drive itself, then whenever you’re not utilizing it, you possibly can put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking individuals the place they should go, and incomes you some cash whilst you sleep or work. It would not appear unreasonable that your automobile may very well be used for 100 hours within the week on this method.

There are a couple of points right here, nonetheless. Firstly, for those who’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automobile, would you like complete strangers driving round in it for 90 hours every week? Even for those who do, there’s an issue with demand. You let individuals use your automobile as a taxi for 90 hours every week, no drawback. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite facet. Three homes alone can provide practically 300 hours of rides every week. It would not take lengthy earlier than the out there hours from all of those autonomous automobiles vastly outstrip the demand, which means that your automobile will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in spite of everything.

If one way or the other demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automobile is used for ten occasions as a lot as it’s at the moment, then the roads could have ten occasions the quantity of site visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will develop into automobile shepherds with flocks of automobiles

If one Uber driver has 20 automobiles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

In case you’re an Uber driver frightened about shedding your supply of revenue, don’t be concerned, Elon has you coated. He envisions that immediately’s Uber drivers will develop into tomorrow’s automobile shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later could have fleets of 10-20 automobiles that they’ll take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the common Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a problem of demand. If an Uber driver immediately goes from one automobile to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, which means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It isn’t potential for each driver immediately to run a fleet of 20 automobiles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab can be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s observe report says in any other case

Tesla

I did not assume any declare may very well be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the most important product ever, however he managed to high it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon stated that the Cybercab can be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out latest historical past. In 2014, Elon stated that the Cybertruck could be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, after we ought to have been in a position to begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is principally only a massive automobile with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, absolutely self-driving autonomous automobile that should bear rigorous security testing earlier than individuals go wherever close to one. The probabilities of that taking place earlier than 2027 are slim to none.